Two political proposals advertise the same savings. What should I check before comparing them?
Politics"Nine billion is nine billion," a member of our politics discussion group said, putting two leaflets side by side. "Why are we making this complicated?"
The leaflets describe fictional US federal proposals to reorganise administrative services. One says it would save nine billion dollars over ten years. The other says savings would reach nine billion once the new system was fully running, but I can't find a period attached to that number. Neither leaflet links to proposed legislative text or a complete estimate.
I offered to bring a comparison to our next discussion. Now I have two pages of notes and no honest total. One member wants me to label the second promise misleading. Another says spending time on setup costs misses the point: both proposals are supposed to make services easier to use.
I care about that too. A cheaper service that leaves the same paperwork problem wouldn't satisfy me. But I don't want to make up an estimate or assume a promise is false just because the leaflet doesn't answer my questions.
What information would let us compare these claims fairly? And what should my comparison say if I still can't establish the period, the costs of the change, or what would happen without either proposal?
Both proposals and all leaflet figures are fictional; the sources explain estimation methods, not these proposals.