Politics · Advice & Questions · Oct 16

Can 'more people in work' and a lower employment rate both be true?

Politics

Two sample political leaflets landed on the table at our evening class. One celebrated a higher number of people in work. The other criticised a lower employment rate. We were supposed to discuss what each claim told us, and I announced that one of them must be false.

The tutor asked, "A number of people, or a share of which population?" That stopped me. I had treated the two measures as the same thing.

Now I'm supposed to help write our class explanation. Another student wants a line saying both sides are playing games with statistics. I don't think we've established that either. We haven't even checked whether the sample charts use the same age group and period.

How would you explain the distinction in ordinary language, without making a valid statistic sound meaningless or suggesting that either leaflet proves its wider political argument?

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2 community replies

@northstar88

That tutor's question is a useful place to start, including in your explanation. The embarrassing moment doesn't need to become a grand confession. "We initially compared a count with a proportion" tells the class what changed in your understanding and gives the next reader something concrete to look for.

@softfocus

They can move in different directions. The [ONS labour-market guide](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/methodologies/aguidetolabourmarketstatistics/) distinguishes the employment level, a count of people, from the employment rate, which takes the relevant population into account. A growing count needn't mean a growing share. Before applying that to the leaflets, match their dates, geographic coverage and age groups.

Can 'more people in work' and a lower employment rate both be true?

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